Germany: Successful Implementation of Infrastructure Investment Key to Growth, Fiscal Sustainability

Infrastructure investment gap Timely disbursement of EUR 500BN Infrastructure Special Fund through 2035 is important for the development trajectory of Germany. To ensure additionalness, the core budget will require to maintain investment levels. Planned investment mainly targets high-effects in road, rail and digital infrastructure, which must address the most important requirements to narrow the existing…

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Meeting NATO’s Higher Defence Spending Target Will Weigh On EU Credit Profiles

Currently assigned scope sovereign ratings defined by ratings. Source: IMF, scope rating forecast.There is an increase in military expenses to be quite different in Europe Importantly, the government debt forecast of scope rating is based on different rates of increase in defense spending. Governments of Central and Eastern Europe are expected to increase their efforts,…

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Global Economic Outlook: US, Europe Grow More Slowly Than Expected Amid Trade, Geopolitical Tensions

*Changes in compared to the global economic outlook forecast of October 2024. Negative growth rate presented in brackets. Source: Scope rating forecasting, regional and national statistical offices, IMF.Defense, infrastructure spent to reduce strong 2026 growth in Europe Scope expects a strong growth in Europe in 2026 as defense spending increases and governments implement measures to…

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Portugal: Persistent Political Fragmentation to Test Growth and Fiscal Prospects

Scope sovereign rating levels and brackets rating outlook. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Scope Rating.Fiscal discipline improves primary balance, creates flexibility to address social pressures The fiscal discipline displayed in recent years enabled gradual governments to accumulate the budgetary headroom, causing some flexibility to gradually implement the measures of development. The previous advertising government took…

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US Public Debt Trajectory and Interest Payments Set to Worsen and Exceed Sovereign Peers

Scope sovereign rating levels and brackets rating outlook. Source: IMF, Scope Rating.Compulsory expenses for running budgetary results, long -term fiscal pressure Forced budgetary flexibility limits the ability of administration to remove the needs of higher expenditure with cuts or increase in revenue. In 2024, compulsory expenses, including major health care programs and social security, were…

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Romania: Fiscal Pressures Rise Due to Domestic Political Uncertainty and External Risks

According to the government’s plan, the General Government will reach 62.6% in Date-to-GDP 2029, from 54.8% in 2024, and thereafter declines, which is optimistic in rating ratings. The latest estimates of the scope, which include expectations of weakening growth over 2025–26, and shown slow budgetary consolidation, debt-to-GDP ratio on the continuous increasing trend, finishing a…

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Sovereign Credit: US Policy Shifts Point to Tariff-light, Trade-war, Economic-crisis Scenarios

If applied, tariffs will represent the largest peacock trade shock for the global economy over 100 years. If continuous, this policy shift will have significant credit implications for both the United States (AAA by scope with negative credit outlook) and both sovereign globally. Conversely, even their complete reversal, although unlikely, will not fully restore the…

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UK Economic Risks and Fiscal Pressures Intensify

There is also negative risk for the government’s fiscal and macroeconomic forecasts, there is a possibility that the Chancellor of the excarker may need to further adjust its policies in the upcoming autumn budget. Market expectations already reflect the possibility of additional tax measures, which can reduce the economy. The ‘mutual’ American tariff announcements are…

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