Global Economic Outlook: US, Europe Grow More Slowly Than Expected Amid Trade, Geopolitical Tensions

*Changes in compared to the global economic outlook forecast of October 2024. Negative growth rate presented in brackets. Source: Scope rating forecasting, regional and national statistical offices, IMF.Defense, infrastructure spent to reduce strong 2026 growth in Europe Scope expects a strong growth in Europe in 2026 as defense spending increases and governments implement measures to…

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Sovereign Credit: US Policy Shifts Point to Tariff-light, Trade-war, Economic-crisis Scenarios

If applied, tariffs will represent the largest peacock trade shock for the global economy over 100 years. If continuous, this policy shift will have significant credit implications for both the United States (AAA by scope with negative credit outlook) and both sovereign globally. Conversely, even their complete reversal, although unlikely, will not fully restore the…

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