U.S. CPI Misses Forecasts, Strengthening Case for Further Fed Rate Cuts

Energy and shelter remain major contributors Energy prices remain a notable growth driver, with the energy index increasing 4.2% year on year. Electricity prices rose 6.9%, while natural gas rose 9.1%, highlighting ongoing cost pressures for households and utilities. Shelter inflation eased but remained steady at 3.0% annually, confirming that housing costs are slowing rather…

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U.S. Payroll Growth Stalls as Hiring Weakens, Unemployment Rises, and Wage Growth Slows

Unemployment rate increased as participation remained stable The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations and an increase from earlier in the fall. The number of unemployed increased to 7.8 million, while the labor force participation rate remained at 62.5%, suggesting that the increase in unemployment was due to a slowdown in…

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Sovereign Outlook 2026: Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Fiscal Headwinds

*Till December 12, 2025. Ukraine is currently assigned no rating outlook in selective default. Outlooks on long-term issuer ratings are displayed in foreign currencies. Source: Scope Ratings.Rating risks erode potential for strong economic growth, fiscal flexibility The significant geopolitical and fiscal risks outweigh the potential positive effects of strong growth and emerging areas of fiscal…

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Core PCE Cools to 2.8%, Boosting Trader Expectations for Fed Policy Support

Spending slowing as services increasingly dominate consumption personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.3%, driven almost entirely by a $63.0 billion increase in services spending. Goods expenditures contributed a modest $2.1 billion. However, in real terms, consumption stagnated, with real PCE registering 0.0%, a sign that higher prices in previous months had already constrained purchasing power….

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What’s the Final Economic Impact of the Record US Government Shutdown?

The short-term shutdown has limited economic effects, but could leave a more lasting impact due to its record length. The Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that approximately US$11 billion of economic activity could be permanently lost. Shutdown has increased economic challenges The shutdown has exacerbated economic challenges such as sluggish hiring and persistently elevated inflation….

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China Outlook Weakens as Housing Slump Deepens and Demand Falters

HSMPI – 5 minute chart – 141125Chinese economic indicators send mixed signals The larger-than-expected year-on-year decline in home prices coincides with a drop in unemployment but weak retail sales, challenging Beijing’s 5% gross domestic product growth target. Unemployment It unexpectedly fell from 5.2% in September to 5.1% in October. Stability in the labor market could…

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China Outlook: Data, Demand, and Policy Drive Market Mood

USDCNY – Monthly Chart – 111125Easing of Deflation Pressure in China: Temporary or a Change? While China’s PMI data and export trends are indicating increasing cost pressureExpectations rise for October consumer and producer prices to end deflator background. Consumer prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in October after falling 0.3% in September. Meanwhile, producer prices fell 2.1%,…

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ADP Reports Surprise 42K Job Gain, But Small Business Losses Flag Labor Market Strain

Sector Breakdown: Mixed bag below the headlines The strongest hiring occurred in trade, transportation and utilities (+47,000), with education and health services also contributing (+26,000). But the picture was not universally strong. Despite all the hype around AI, tech-heavy information services cut 17,000 positions. Business and professional services (-15,000) and manufacturing (-3,000) also retreated. The…

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