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Portugal: Persistent Political Fragmentation to Test Growth and Fiscal Prospects

Scope sovereign rating levels and brackets rating outlook. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Scope Rating.Fiscal discipline improves primary balance, creates flexibility to address social pressures The fiscal discipline displayed in recent years enabled gradual governments to accumulate the budgetary headroom, causing some flexibility to gradually implement the measures of development. The previous advertising government took…

Sovereign Credit: US Policy Shifts Point to Tariff-light, Trade-war, Economic-crisis Scenarios

23mercury media6 months ago03 mins

If applied, tariffs will represent the largest peacock trade shock for the global economy over 100 years. If continuous, this policy shift will have significant credit implications for both the United States (AAA by scope with negative credit outlook) and both sovereign globally. Conversely, even their complete reversal, although unlikely, will not fully restore the…

US Trade Policy: Wide-ranging Tariff Increases Heighten Global Credit Risk

23mercury media6 months ago08 mins

Note: Trade in goods balance as part of gross national product by 1959; And as a GDP share from 1960. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Unstate, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Scope Rating.Uncertainty surrounds the future path of business war American trade deficit can be well reduced than the current high (Figure 2),…

European Rearmament Plans: National Policy Choices Will Shape Fiscal Impact

23mercury media7 months ago03 mins

Relying on debt-funded military expenses will weaken the credit approach of France and the UK, but a combination of limited fiscal flexibility and high bond yields can encourage the two governments to make necessary budgetary adjustments. In addition, Germany’s fiscal stimulus may have a favorable widespread impact on development, which will help soften the permanent…

German Consumer Sentiment Sinks on Income Expectations; EUR/USD Holds Losses

23mercury media8 months ago04 mins

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Portugal: Persistent Political Fragmentation to Test Growth and Fiscal Prospects

Sovereign Credit: US Policy Shifts Point to Tariff-light, Trade-war, Economic-crisis Scenarios

US Trade Policy: Wide-ranging Tariff Increases Heighten Global Credit Risk

European Rearmament Plans: National Policy Choices Will Shape Fiscal Impact

German Consumer Sentiment Sinks on Income Expectations; EUR/USD Holds Losses