Portugal: Persistent Political Fragmentation to Test Growth and Fiscal Prospects

Scope sovereign rating levels and brackets rating outlook. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Scope Rating.Fiscal discipline improves primary balance, creates flexibility to address social pressures The fiscal discipline displayed in recent years enabled gradual governments to accumulate the budgetary headroom, causing some flexibility to gradually implement the measures of development. The previous advertising government took…

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US Public Debt Trajectory and Interest Payments Set to Worsen and Exceed Sovereign Peers

Scope sovereign rating levels and brackets rating outlook. Source: IMF, Scope Rating.Compulsory expenses for running budgetary results, long -term fiscal pressure Forced budgetary flexibility limits the ability of administration to remove the needs of higher expenditure with cuts or increase in revenue. In 2024, compulsory expenses, including major health care programs and social security, were…

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Romania: Fiscal Pressures Rise Due to Domestic Political Uncertainty and External Risks

According to the government’s plan, the General Government will reach 62.6% in Date-to-GDP 2029, from 54.8% in 2024, and thereafter declines, which is optimistic in rating ratings. The latest estimates of the scope, which include expectations of weakening growth over 2025–26, and shown slow budgetary consolidation, debt-to-GDP ratio on the continuous increasing trend, finishing a…

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Sovereign Credit: US Policy Shifts Point to Tariff-light, Trade-war, Economic-crisis Scenarios

If applied, tariffs will represent the largest peacock trade shock for the global economy over 100 years. If continuous, this policy shift will have significant credit implications for both the United States (AAA by scope with negative credit outlook) and both sovereign globally. Conversely, even their complete reversal, although unlikely, will not fully restore the…

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UK Economic Risks and Fiscal Pressures Intensify

There is also negative risk for the government’s fiscal and macroeconomic forecasts, there is a possibility that the Chancellor of the excarker may need to further adjust its policies in the upcoming autumn budget. Market expectations already reflect the possibility of additional tax measures, which can reduce the economy. The ‘mutual’ American tariff announcements are…

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European Rearmament Plans: National Policy Choices Will Shape Fiscal Impact

Relying on debt-funded military expenses will weaken the credit approach of France and the UK, but a combination of limited fiscal flexibility and high bond yields can encourage the two governments to make necessary budgetary adjustments. In addition, Germany’s fiscal stimulus may have a favorable widespread impact on development, which will help soften the permanent…

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