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*Till December 12, 2025. Ukraine is currently assigned no rating outlook in selective default. Outlooks on long-term issuer ratings are displayed in foreign currencies. Source: Scope Ratings.Rating risks erode potential for strong economic growth, fiscal flexibility The significant geopolitical and fiscal risks outweigh the potential positive effects of strong growth and emerging areas of fiscal…
Perspectives from Dennis Shane, Macroeconomic Council, Scope Ratings.
financial-system risks driven by elevated valuations across many asset classes and long-held expectations of a recovery in rising markets; Leveraging risks in the non-bank financial intermediation sector, including private credit, exposures in the less-regulated artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency sectors; high borrowing rates for long periods of time; and US and global financial regulation. The protectionist…
Moreover, for decision makers responsible for steering the US economy – whether through monetary or fiscal policy – delays in such data confuse and undermine the quality of policymaking. The November employment report is only scheduled to be published on December 16, more than a week later than originally scheduled, and not until after the…
The short-term shutdown has limited economic effects, but could leave a more lasting impact due to its record length. The Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that approximately US$11 billion of economic activity could be permanently lost. Shutdown has increased economic challenges The shutdown has exacerbated economic challenges such as sluggish hiring and persistently elevated inflation….
Source: Eurostat, Scope RatingsNo further ECB rate cuts during 2025 scope not predictable There will be further ECB rate cuts this year, but the ECB may keep its options open. Exposure to the scope’s base case At the end of this year or next year it is time for more relaxation rather than strictness. The…
Because many U.S. industries are heavily dependent on the China-dominated rare-earth value chain, Beijing has the wherewithal to extract meaningful concessions during trade disputes. China’s approach could prove helpful to major trading blocs in managing their interactions with the Trump government. New trade tensions are very likely to emerge Many details of the US-China deal…
Fed remains divided The Fed is divided not least because of growing political pressure and growing calls to change its inflation objective, which would facilitate the deeper interest rate cuts being sought by the White House. Some Federal Open Market Committee members are voting as if the inflation target were already 3% instead of 2%,…
Note: The scope and IMF estimates are for Ukraine’s publicly guaranteed debt stock, including public and ERA debt. The June 2024 IMF projections were made ahead of the August 2024 Eurobond debt restructuring. Source: IMF, Scope Ratings.The EC is acting on the concerns of member states; UK involvement adds value Belgium has requested stronger guarantees…
Despite slow growth, the Slovak government continues efforts to reduce the budget deficit. But the risk of missing the target is increasing amid worsening fiscal fatigue.
Similarly, legal professionals and firms are considered unfavorable for the policy purposes of President Donald Trump, subjected to public pressure, while concerns have also come to light around the fairness of economic data after the dismissal of Erica McAinterfare, former Commissioner of Labor Statistics Bureau, Erica McAntarfer. Extensive challenges emerge Increased criticism of educational institutions…
NB Scope and IMF estimates are for public and publicly guaranteed loan stock of Ukraine including ERA loans. June -2024 IMF estimates made before Eurobond loan restructuring. Source: IMF, Scope Rating.Finding the financing gap represents a historical challenge – especially to the European Union Ukraine funding represents a historical challenge, given the IMF estimates that…
Source: Deutsche finanzagentur, scope ratingInvestment expenses need to be targeted, to overcome time and complementary economic capacity It will be important to ensure that investments under special infrastructure funds do not convert the cost of investment from regular, core budget. To end this, the Special Fund law requires the share of investment in the main…
Inflation, growth, exchange rate to consider the next rate change The rating agency does not expect any ECB rate cut this year, but the ECB will keep its options open. This year or at the end of next year is easy rather than tightening bias. The next change of the deposit rate from its current…
Inflation may be slightly reduced by next year, but high tariffs and their second round of effects, a flexible economy and an extended budgetary policy means the risk of inflation. Core inflation in August is at a high level year-on-year at a high level of multi-front of 3.1%. Market participants reduce challenges for freedom The…