U.S. CPI Misses Forecasts, Strengthening Case for Further Fed Rate Cuts

Energy and shelter remain major contributors Energy prices remain a notable growth driver, with the energy index increasing 4.2% year on year. Electricity prices rose 6.9%, while natural gas rose 9.1%, highlighting ongoing cost pressures for households and utilities. Shelter inflation eased but remained steady at 3.0% annually, confirming that housing costs are slowing rather…

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U.S. Payroll Growth Stalls as Hiring Weakens, Unemployment Rises, and Wage Growth Slows

Unemployment rate increased as participation remained stable The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations and an increase from earlier in the fall. The number of unemployed increased to 7.8 million, while the labor force participation rate remained at 62.5%, suggesting that the increase in unemployment was due to a slowdown in…

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Core PCE Cools to 2.8%, Boosting Trader Expectations for Fed Policy Support

Spending slowing as services increasingly dominate consumption personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.3%, driven almost entirely by a $63.0 billion increase in services spending. Goods expenditures contributed a modest $2.1 billion. However, in real terms, consumption stagnated, with real PCE registering 0.0%, a sign that higher prices in previous months had already constrained purchasing power….

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ADP Reports Surprise 42K Job Gain, But Small Business Losses Flag Labor Market Strain

Sector Breakdown: Mixed bag below the headlines The strongest hiring occurred in trade, transportation and utilities (+47,000), with education and health services also contributing (+26,000). But the picture was not universally strong. Despite all the hype around AI, tech-heavy information services cut 17,000 positions. Business and professional services (-15,000) and manufacturing (-3,000) also retreated. The…

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