Sovereign Credit: US Policy Shifts Point to Tariff-light, Trade-war, Economic-crisis Scenarios

If applied, tariffs will represent the largest peacock trade shock for the global economy over 100 years. If continuous, this policy shift will have significant credit implications for both the United States (AAA by scope with negative credit outlook) and both sovereign globally. Conversely, even their complete reversal, although unlikely, will not fully restore the…

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U.S. March Jobs Report Beats Expectations, Unemployment Steady at 4.2%

Transport and warehousing also doubled the earlier monthly average of the sector, with the advantage of 23,000-revival. Courier and messengers added 16,000 jobs, while truck transport increased by 10,000. These benefits were partially offset by the loss of 9,000-revival in warehousing and storage. Retail employment rebellion after strike effect Retail trade added 24,000 jobs, roughly…

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GDP Revised to 2.4%, Initial Claims Decline—Cooling Inflation Supports Growth Outlook

From an industry perspective, private services-producing areas increased by 2.4%, while goods-producing industries increased by 2.3%. The government’s production increased by 2.7%, promoting the increasing role of fiscal expenditure. The actual gross production expanded a total of 1.7%, with an increase of 3.1% in government production. Inflation trend is stable Price index for gross domestic…

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Pending Home Sales Rise 2.0% in February; NAR Projects Stronger Housing Market in 2025

The pending home sales index (PHSI) increased to 72.0, which is still below the base line of 100 that reflects the 2001 market activity. Overall, pending transactions declined by 3.6% a year ago compared to the same month, underlining constant structural obstacles in the housing market. Horticulture rates remain significant obstacles NAR Chief Economist Lawrence…

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PCE, Income Beat Forecasts; Spending Slows—Fed Outlook in Focus as Inflation Persists

More information in our economic calendar.More inflation is threatened to fuel more than tariffs Whereas before the February data recent policy changes, the Lump Tariffs introduced by the Trump administration are increasing the approach to inflation. Fed officials divide on their potential impact. Susan Colins of Boston Fed flagged off a potential short -term spike,…

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