Scope hopes that the general government budget surplus will remain at around 2.6% of GNI* this year (a measure of the size of the Irish economy except the malformations related to MNE activities) and an average of about 2.3% on an average between 2026–30. In particular, without additional corporate tax revenue, the general government budget will be about 1% to 2% of GNI*.
While dependence on MNES remains a major economic vulnerability-only 10 companies pay only three accounts for 57% and 40% of all corporation taxes-strong corporate-tax income and economic growth reduce the projection to government debt.
General Government Debt-to-GNI* 2025 is expected to fall by 63% and is less than 50% in 2020 to 2030, in 2024, with General Government loan-to-GDP period is falling from about 40% to 30% (Figure 1,
Strategic stores are increasing to help meet the challenges of Ireland welfare and infrastructure
The government’s strategic approach for windfall revenue strengthens the fiscal approach through the two sovereign funds established in 2024. Although the transfer is only an account for a relatively modest part of the windfall corporate tax receipts, the sovereign money offers a buffer to address the structural challenges pressed before the economy.
The government can grow up to about 0.8% of the GDP in a year in future Ireland funds through 2040, allowing future governments to reduce investment returns from 2041 to deal with an aging population health and well -being.
The government is also depositing resources for modernization of infrastructure and also to address climate change with EUR 2BN of annual flow for infrastructure, climate and nature fund since 2025-2030.
Assessing the scope of Ireland -friendly refinance profiles further supports the fiscal approach, with a weighted average treasury debt maturity of less than 40% of the outstanding treasury loan within five years. The National Treasury Management Agency’s EUR 30BN (about 5%of the GDP) provides a cash balance and more financing flexibility.
Lack of supply-party, public investment needs are challenges
Elimination of supply-party hurdles remains an important policy challenge, in which the economy is working on capacity facing labor and skills.
The government’s updated National Development Scheme includes EUR 102.4BN in capital investment between 2026 and 2030, with the overall investment of EUR 275.4BN by 2035, but the execution risks are high in view of tight labor markets and long processes.
It would be important to address the obstacles of these supplies-party through labor-market reforms to absorb ambitious infrastructure on housing, water, energy and transport.
Over time, the implementation of the National Development Scheme can enhance the development model and support the competition, while the exposure of the economy can be reduced to global shocks as a small, open and economically inter-structure economy.
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Thomas Gilet is a sovereign in the scope rating and a director in the public sector rating. Sovereign rating analyst Elena Clare contributed to draft this research.