Germany: Ambitious 2025-26 Spending Plans Likely Delayed, Weighing on Near-term Growth


Source: Deutsche finanzagentur, scope rating

Investment expenses need to be targeted, to overcome time and complementary economic capacity

It will be important to ensure that investments under special infrastructure funds do not convert the cost of investment from regular, core budget. To end this, the Special Fund law requires the share of investment in the main budget, which is roughly in 2024 to remain above 10% of the total expenditure. However, accounting rules allow for sufficient flexibility, and eventually the Parliament decides whether investment stake is fulfilled, effectively entrusts the government to the government.

The budget of 2025 already reflects a significant amount of reshuffle of goods spent between core budget and infrastructure special funds. In particular, the budget of the Ministry of Federal Transport saw a decrease in net expenses around EUR 11BN as per the Counting from the IFO Institute, which was mostly manifested in the Special Fund, while the budget of the federal ministry of federal labor and social affairs saw a net increase of a uniform quantity in the budget of the federal ministry, which is related to the increase in most useless people. This highlights the government’s increased flexibility under the new budgetary structure, adding uncertainty to the expected positive economic impact of declared stimulation.

For a look at all economic events today, check our economic calendar.

Julian Zimernan is a sovereign and a director in the public sector and has a rating of financial institutions in the scope rating.


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