Given these weak fiscal estimates, the scope hopes that France’s government loan-to-GDP ratio increases from 113% to 2030 to 122% in 2030, above the government’s 117% target in 2029.
While the scope is not the base line, a favorable result of the confidence-winning government will represent a significant success and support close-livestical trade-bands. Nevertheless, there are political uncertainty ahead of the municipal elections in March 2026 and the major economic challenges in April-May 2027.
France’s medium -term fiscal approach is thus constrained from an election calendar working against a fragmented political landscape, increased political polarization and political and budgetary reforms.
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Thomas Gilet is a sovereign in the scope rating and a director in the public sector rating. Brian MarleyA senior analyst in the sovereign rating in the scope contributed to the draft of this research.
