Labor market stable, cost rapid climbing
Employment was largely flat, with the number of employees index -2.6. However, the firms cut the hours, as shown by the average workweek index -9.1. Pricing pressures were raised meaningfully: The index paid jumped up to 50.8, and prices climbed to 28.7 – the fastest speed of the price increases in two years. It squeezes a renewed on the margin and the potential pass-through effect is downwards.
Future expectations fall rapidly
The index for future general trade conditions fell to 20 points -7.4, its second lowest level on records. Future orders and shipments also moved into a negative area, and capital expenditure schemes were flat. The concerns of the supply chain intensified, the forward -looking supply availability is falling to the index -18.0. At the same time, firms estimate input and output prices, which continue to move, further increase the confidence of Outlook.
Market forecast: recession
While the data of April came in the above expectations, comprehensive trend remains negative. Manufacturing in the state of New York is still under weak demand, supply tightening and rising cost pressure. A rapid decline in further indicators adds weight to a recession short-term forecast for regional industrial equity and manufacturing-sensitive assets.
