Bitcoin (BTC) is hanging below the monthly closing price of $90,000 for November.
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Bitcoin traders are expecting a slight correction and even a return above the $100,000 mark after the massive selloff.
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BTC price action still has to grapple with the consequences of its latest “death cross” on the daily time frame.
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New data shows that speculators are absorbing coins distributed by long-term holders.
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Thanksgiving week provides a brief but data-rich period for risk assets.
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Crypto market sentiment is on the rebound as stocks plunge into “extreme fear.”
Is Bitcoin Coming Out of the Wreckage?
Following its latest local low of $80,500 last week, Bitcoin remains highly uncertain as the November monthly close approaches.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and trading view The $88,000 mark represents what is currently acting as a price range.
Traders are as divided as ever, with long-term bearish predictions mixed with modest optimism.
“Bitcoin has reclaimed the 4H SMA-20 for the first time in 2 weeks,” trader BitBull said in a note. x post Monday, referring to the 20-period simple moving average on a four-hour chart.
“On the shorter time frame, $BTC looks good now. A weekly close above $92,000 would make a bullish case for a rally towards $105K-$110K.”
Further hope came from Dan Crypto Trades, who argued that the weekly structure was still “intact” despite a major support collapse.
$BTC By now it is clear that Bitcoin has completely lost its bull market support band.
With some small deviations below, it was broadly supporting the price throughout the cycle.
But this recent decline leaves a gap of over $20K+ to get back into the band.
at some point,… pic.twitter.com/dL15LFlMix
– Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) 23 November 2025
Meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michael van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s latest three-day chart candle as “great.”
“These typically form at the bottom of the markets, and since the current sentiment and indicators are more extended than FTX, I would not be surprised to see $BTC trading between $90-96K in the coming week,” he said. told X followers.
Van de Poppe noted the crypto market’s reaction to the implosion of exchange FTX in late 2022, an event that led to the final phase of the last bear market.
BTC price faces death cross dilemma
The coming days will be an important test of Bitcoin market strength as the price will emerge from the classic bear signal on the daily time frame.
The latest “death cross” on BTC/USD, which forms when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) drops below its 200-day counterpart, hit on November 15.
The implications of this vary depending on where Bitcoin is in its price cycle, but under the current circumstances, a major recovery is desperately needed to prevent a prolonged decline.
Commentator Benjamin Cowen wrote in an article, “Note that previous death crosses marked local lows in the market.” x post On this topic last week.
“Of course, when the cycle ends, the death cross rally fails. If the cycle does not end, Bitcoin’s boom time will begin within the next week.”
Cowen warned that if such a “bounce” fails, the 200-day SMA will target the lower level, dashing hopes of a rapid market comeback.
“If there is no bounce within 1 week, there will likely be another decline before a big rally back to the 200D SMA, which will then mark a macro lower high,” he stressed.
The 200-day SMA currently stands at $110,130.
As Cointelegraph reported, losing the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) two weeks ago sent prices reeling, with no weekly candle closing below it seen since March 2023.
Updating
“It just so happens that the 50-week EMA (violet) is almost coincident with the macro downtrend (black),” he said. wrote With a chart on Sunday.
“Turning the 50-week EMA into resistance (or extending briefly higher beyond it but failing to turn it into new support) while also being rejected from the macro downtrend would signal weakness and confirm lower highs.”
speculators come in
Bitcoin’s price volatility has sparked huge swings among investor groups, with reactions divided at multi-month lows.
New research this week from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that BTC supply is moving from long-term (LTH) to short-term holders (STH).
Contributor CryptoOnChain summarized, “Long-term holders are distributing and selling in droves, while short-term holders are buying and accumulating.”take quickly” blog post.
The post examined ongoing 30-day status changes between LTH and STH units, which are defined as units with overstays of more and less than 155 days, respectively.
While “distribution” is characteristic of LTH investors, newcomers, who are traditionally considered more speculative in their trading habits, are absorbing their coins.
“This group, often driven by market euphoria, is now ‘accumulating’ at higher prices,” CryptoOnChain continued, noting that overall transfers have reached 63,000 BTC.
Cointelegraph had previously reported panic among speculators due to the market decline.
The group’s expense output profit ratio (SOPR) – the ratio of coins operating on the chain in profit or loss – hit a near 15-month low of 0.927 over the weekend.
Thanksgiving week brings back old data
The upcoming US macro week may be shorter than usual due to Thanksgiving, but traders will have little time to relax.
The impact of the government shutdown means a backlog of economic data is making its way into the market – and each print can impact sentiment and asset performance.
The focus in the coming days will be on September numbers, which will include both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index.
Q3 GDP and initial jobless claims have been added to the mix, meaning that by the time Thanksgiving rolls around, traders’ view of the economic outlook will have changed significantly.
Trading Resource The Kobeshi Letter, “We have a short but busy week ahead.” commented On X.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported low expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Latest Perspectives from CME Group fadewatch tool Indications are that expectations for a 0.25% cut at the Fed’s December meeting are now at about 70%.
In the latest edition of our regular analysis series, “market mosaic“Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that Fed officials themselves had taken a more hawkish stance on the outlook.
“The minutes of the Fed’s most recent rate-setting meeting also noted that ‘a number of participants’ suggested that it would be appropriate to ‘keep the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year’ with respect to the fed funds rate.”
Mosaic Assets nevertheless suggested that US stocks were “oversold” and thus potentially leading to a classic Santa rally at the end of the year.
“Recent conditions also favor a bullish trend, which comes as seasonality turns into a major headwind during this holiday week,” it added.
“There are already signs late last week that buying pressure is increasing.”
The daily relative strength index (RSI) on the S&P 500 slipped below 35 briefly last week, its lowest reading since April.
Crypto sentiment leads the rebound
Crypto market sentiment is showing tentative signs of improvement as it surpassed rock-bottom readings in traditional markets.
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latest number The Fear and Greed Index and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index likely give crypto bulls a dose of optimism.
After hitting its joint lowest level for 2025 last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has nearly doubled, reaching 19/100 on Monday. While still in “extreme fear” mode, the index is in contrast to the stocks that have helped it produce only a minimum of 11/100 on its TradeFi counterpart.
This represents a change from earlier, when crypto sentiment drove riskier assets lower. Now, the crypto’s uptrend could signal a broader correction in risk assets.
“Bitcoin sentiment on social media has officially dropped to its lowest level since December 11, 2023,” research firm Sentiment said. revealed Friday.
“According to bullish vs. bearish comments on X, Reddit, Telegram and others, retail sales are capitulating and panic selling is occurring at a significant level that we have not seen in 2 years.”
Additionally, Kobeissi reiterated that there has been no obvious news or macro trigger for both crypto and stocks to fall.
It was argued that the reform was “structural” in nature and the result of excess leverage and liquidation.
“Leverage is driving changes in investor sentiment,” a x thread Read on the topic.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investing and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
