Bitcoin may be making a short-term low after weeks of heavy selling, with one market analyst arguing that the conditions are in place for a relief rally towards the $100,000-$110,000 range.
In a recent video, trader Mr. Crypto Said Bitcoin (BTC) short-term structure shows signs of stabilization after what was described as a “capitulation” across the market. He claimed that indicators tied to trader behavior show that big players have begun to open new long positions despite sentiment dipping into extreme fear territory, a mix that historically precedes surges during recessions.
One of the main technical signals cited is the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart, which is approaching the 30 level. “We’ve hit bottom here with Bitcoin. We’re hitting level 30. Boom,” he said.
The analyst said that, in previous cycles, this area has largely coincided with market bottoms. While he cautioned that this does not guarantee the start of a new uptrend, he said the current setup often signals at least a temporary reversal.
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$102,000 level in focus
Another factor weighing on the rebound scenario is Bitcoin’s distance from its 50-week moving average, which is currently near $102,000. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has repeatedly returned towards this level after falling below it in previous market cycles. The expectation now is that prices may bounce back and reach six figures before any deeper trend emerges.
Macro conditions are also fueling optimism in the near term. The analyst pointed to expectations that quantitative tightening could end soon with speculation of another interest rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting. Both developments favor risk assets like Bitcoin by easing financial conditions.
However, the long-term outlook remains cautious. The analyst claimed that the broader market is in bearish territory. He warned that any bounce-back could be followed by new weakness, as macro conditions have not yet changed decisively to sustain growth.
Connected: Crypto sentiment rises above ‘extreme fear’ after 18-day period
Crypto sentiment overcomes ‘extreme fear’
After spending 18 days in “extreme fear”, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index finally reached the “fear” level of 28.
Meanwhile, Andre Dragosh, head of research at Bitwise Europe, has said that Bitcoin may have a big upside move ahead, as its current price does not reflect improving macro expectations. He said Bitcoin now offers an “asymmetric” risk-reward similar to the March 2020 COVID crash, when prices dropped before a strong bounce, arguing that the market is already pricing in an extremely gloomy global outlook.
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