U.S.-Venezuelan conflict not to impact India’s trade: GTRI

Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) on Sunday (January 4, 2026) said the US-Venezuela conflict will have a negligible impact on India’s trade with the South American country.

On January 4, the US military launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US to face various charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.

Also read: US-Venezuela tension

“India faces negligible impact as trade with Venezuela collapses due to sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade marginal,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI.

The Venezuelan unrest is not likely to have any material economic or energy impact on India, he said.

Although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, bilateral engagement has weakened rapidly since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and reduce commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions, he said.

As a result, Mr Srivastava said India’s trade with Venezuela is now small and declining.

In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela were only $364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for $255.3 million, down 81.3% from $1.4 billion in crude oil imports in FY2024.

India’s exports to Venezuela were a modest $95.3 million, including pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.

“Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints and large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security,” he said.

Venezuela has about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (about 16%), Russia (about 5–6%), or the United States (about 4%).