India’s trade data for November shows exports continue to remain resilient despite rising US tariffs on several key products. This is particularly important as the US remains India’s largest export partner by a substantial margin. Interestingly, not only have overall exports increased, but shipments have also jumped, especially to the US.
This resilience is driven by two distinct trends: first, growth in smartphone exports to the US is effectively offsetting declines in other regions; Second, Indian exporters are successfully mitigating the impact of the loss of the US market by increasingly diversifying into alternative global markets.
India’s November trade data revealed a significant reversal: in November this year, exports to the US increased by about 22.6% year-on-year, taking the growth to 11.4% in the April-November 2025 period.
US remains India’s top export destination by a huge margin; In November, shipments to the US reached nearly $7 billion, more than double the $3.38 billion sent to the United Arab Emirates, India’s second-largest partner.
This rebound was counterproductive, as exports to the US fell 12% in September and 9% in October. Moreover, India’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) hit a nine-month low in November, with the new export orders sub-index slipping to a 13-month low.
Despite these indicators suggesting further decline, the trend was reversed with a substantial increase in exports to the US in November.
While detailed commodity-country pairings for November are still awaited, a deeper look at the August-October data reveals underlying changes in India’s trade dynamics.
electronic goods
This surge is being driven primarily by electronic goods, one of the products that dominates India’s export basket to the US. Much of this momentum has been driven by smartphone exports, which have been largely untouched by the tariffs.
A look at August-October data highlights this change: exports of electronic goods to the US more than doubled, from $2,139 million in 2024 to $4,574 million in 2025. During this period, the US share in India’s total electronic goods exports increased from 25% to about 43%.
Given this trajectory, the unexpected reversal in November’s overall export figures was likely due to continued growth in smartphone exports. Once specific commodity-country pairing data for November is released, we will have a clearer picture of whether this “electronics shield” remains firmly in place.
These figures reflect an important nuance: the growth in US exports in November concentrated on goods that are outside the scope of the current tariff regime. This explains an important part of the puzzle – why US exports grew despite widespread trade stagnation.
That said, India’s dependence on the US extends to many other items that fall under the tariff regime. One might expect these tariffs to impact export figures; Still, the broader picture remains resilient. Total exports increased by 19.4% in November, bringing growth in the April-November period to 2.6%. What does this explain?
gems and jewelery
Gems and jewellery, one of the major products exported to the US, suffered a significant blow.
Data from the August-October window highlights this shift: Gems and jewelery exports to the US have more than halved, from $2,617 million in 2024 to $1,011 million in 2025. This is a 60% decline year-on-year for the period. During this period, the US share in India’s total gems and jewelery exports declined sharply, falling from 32.4% to about 13.6%.
Despite the sharp contraction in the US market, India’s overall gems and jewelery exports proved remarkably resilient. Total exports declined by only 8% in August-October. By November 2025, there was significant improvement in the sector, with total gems and jewelery exports increasing by about 28% year-on-year. For the April-November period, the cumulative decline was less than 1%.
This ability to offset the US recession shows that Indian exporters are successfully diversifying into alternative global markets.
marine products
Similar changes can also be seen in marine products. Most of the products in the maritime sector also come under the tariff regime.
Data from the August-October window highlights this change: exports of marine products to the US declined by 27.4%, from $727 million in 2024 to $528 million in 2025. During this period, the US share in India’s total seaborne exports declined, falling from 36.5% to about 23.2%.
Despite sharp contraction in the US market, India’s overall seaborne exports grew. Total exports increased by 14% in August-October. This continued in November also. In November 2025, there was a significant improvement in the sector, with total seaborne exports increasing by about 15.5% year-on-year.
Data for the chart was obtained from CMIE, PIB and Ministry of Commerce and Industry
published – December 19, 2025 08:00 AM IST