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The International Labor Organization (ILO) Employment and Social Trends 2026 report, released in Geneva on Wednesday (January 14, 2026), warns that the global unemployment rate is projected to hit a historically low level of 4.9% – equivalent to 186 million people – this year. The report found that approximately 284 million workers still live in extreme poverty and earn less than three dollars a day and said that more than two billion workers worldwide are in informal employment.
The report says that between 2015 and 2025, the share of workers living in extreme poverty will decline by only 3.1 percentage points to 7.9%, compared with a 15 percentage point decline in the previous decade. It found, “This leaves 284 million workers living in extreme poverty – on less than $3.00 a day.” And millions of workers around the world still lack access to quality jobs.
ILO Director General Gilbert F. Hongbo said: “Worryingly, the number of working poor and informal workers in low-income countries is increasing, highlighting the lack of progress where it is most needed. The gender gap also remains wide across the world of work, with only limited progress in some areas, such as the decline in contributions to family work.”
Talking about trade uncertainties, the report said that this factor is likely to remain a permanent feature of the global economic landscape at least in the short term. “These dynamics are unfolding alongside broader processes of structural change and digitalisation, which are reshaping trade, supply chains and production systems,” the report said.
The global rate of informality is projected to increase by 0.3 percentage points between 2015 and 2025, after declining over the past decade. “By 2026, 2.1 billion workers globally are projected to be employed informally. Informality is generally associated with lower job quality due to limited access to social protection, rights at work, workplace protections and job security,” it said, adding that this increase largely reflects the rising share of employment in countries with high rates of informality, primarily in Africa and Southern Asia, making efforts to reduce informality in these economies important.
As the global unemployment rate was projected at 4.9% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, and is projected to remain at the same level through 2027, the report said: “Global unemployment is projected to reach 186 million in 2026, while the broader measure of labor underutilization – the jobs gap – is projected to reach 408 million. Regional patterns differ, with Latin America and the Caribbean seeing their overall unemployment rates in the medium are set to decline further over the period, while unemployment in North America is expected to worsen,” the report said.
on women unemployment
In 2025, women will represent only two-fifths of global employment, indicating significant barriers to accessing employment. The report said, “Women were 24.2 percentage points less likely than men to be in the labor force, while young women were 14.4 percentage points more likely than young men to be not in employment, education or training (NEET). The global unemployment rate for women is only slightly above that for men, indicating that they primarily face barriers to accessing the labor market rather than finding a job.”
problems for youth
The report notes that labor market conditions for young people remain problematic, especially in low-income countries. The report found, “In 2025, the global youth unemployment rate is projected to increase from 12.3% in 2024 to 12.4%, while the share of youth with NEET status increased slightly from 19.9% to 20.0%. This is of concern, as 257 million youth with NEET status missed out on the opportunity to gain valuable education, skills and experience to improve their future labor market prospects.”
“Recent disruptions caused by trade uncertainty, combined with ongoing long-term changes in global trade, could significantly impact labor market outcomes. ILO modeling suggests that even a modest increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce returns to labor and, as a consequence, lower real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers in all sectors. Projected income losses are largest in regions deeply integrated into global supply chains – 0.45 in South-East Asia and up to 0.3 percent in Europe and Southern Asia.” Said.
published – January 15, 2026 04:20 am IST
